GOVERNING IN A FAST CHANGING WORLD
We all like to prepare for the future and reduce the risk of unexpected issues disrupting our happiness, health and livelihoods. But as recent events have shown— whether that’s the outbreak of a global pandemic, fire and flood disasters or the resurgence of armed conflict—planning for every possibility isn’t always achievable.
In retrospect, the COVID-19 pandemic and recent warfare may have been preceded by a long series of warning signs. Yet even though conflict and public health crises are always on a government’s radar, it’s impossible to know exactly what will happen, when it will happen, or how events will play out in practice. These hard-to-predict yet seemingly inevitable situations are the kind of events that governments fear most.
Preparing for the unexpected
One of governments’ main duties is to ensure stability in the nation it serves and help every citizen live a safe, happy and fulfilling life. If governments could clearly and accurately predict the challenges of tomorrow, they would stand a much better chance of achieving these goals.
Unfortunately, the world is inherently chaotic and government resources are limited—forcing leaders to triage their preparation strategies by prioritising the issues that seem most likely and urgent at any given time. When public finances are already overstretched, it’s difficult to justify spending large sums of taxpayers’ money on preparing for a problem that may never arise. On the other hand, when the unexpected does happen, the first questions citizens ask are: “Why isn’t the government doing something about this?” and “Why weren’t we better prepared?”